By The Associated Press
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev reiterated on January 6, 2025, that the Azerbaijani airliner that crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, killing 38 people, was shot down by Russia —albeit unintentionally.
“I can say with confidence that the blame for the fact that Azerbaijani citizens died in this disaster lies with the representatives of the Russian Federation,” Aliyev said at a meeting with family members of the crew killed in the crash, according to an online report by Politico Europe.
The crash is the second deadly civil aviation accident linked to fighting in Ukraine. A Russian surface-to-air missile downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing all 298 people aboard, as it flew over the area in eastern Ukraine controlled by Moscow-backed separatists in 2014.
Russia has denied responsibility, but a Dutch court in 2022 convicted two Russians and a pro-Russia Ukrainian man for their role in downing the plane with an air defense system brought into Ukraine from a Russian military base.
In the Kazakhstan crash, Aliyev told Azerbaijani state television that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, a Brazilian-made Embraer 190 aircraft, was hit by fire from the ground over Russia on December 25, 2024, and “rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare.” He criticized Moscow for trying to “hush up” the issue.
“Unfortunately, for the first three days we heard nothing from Russia except delirious versions,” said Aliyev, who emphasized that he was “upset and surprised” by versions of events put forward by Moscow.
“We can say with complete clarity that the plane was shot down by Russia. … We are not saying that it was done intentionally, but it was done.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 28 apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart for what he called a “tragic incident,” but stopped short of acknowledging that Russia was responsible.
The crash killed 38 of 67 people on board. The Kremlin said that air defense systems were firing near Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, where the plane attempted to land, to deflect a Ukrainian drone strike.
The crash and possible causes
The Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was en route from the Azerbaijani capital of Baku to Grozny in the North Caucasus when it turned toward Kazakhstan — hundreds of kilometers across the Caspian Sea from its intended destination — and crashed while attempting to land. The plane came down near the coast about 3 kilometers from Aktau.
Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before hitting the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Passengers and crew who survived the crash told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises on the aircraft as it was circling over Grozny.
Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s civil aviation authority Rosaviatsia, said on December 27 that as the plane was preparing to land in Grozny in deep fog, Ukrainian drones were targeting the city, prompting authorities to close the area to air traffic.
Yadrov said that after two unsuccessful attempts to land, the captain was given the option of other airports but decided to fly to Aktau.
Later, senior officials in the U.S. and Azerbaijan made separate statements suggesting the plane may have been downed by weapons fire, echoing those made by aviation experts who blamed the incident on Russian air defense systems responding to a Ukrainian attack.
Kazakhstani, Azerbaijani and Russian authorities have said they are investigating the crash. Initial theories put forward by various officials included possibilities of a bird strike, severe weather and an oxygen canister exploding aboard the plane.
Rashan Nabiyev, Azerbaijan’s digital development and transportation minister, told Azerbaijani media that “preliminary conclusions by experts point at external impact,” as does witness testimony.
“The type of weapon used in the impact will be determined during the probe,” Nabiyev said.
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said that the U.S. has “seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems.”
Those statements echoed assessments by outside aviation experts and raised pressure on Russia.
Both Putin and Aliyev said that experts from Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan were launching inquiries into the incident in both Grozny and Aktau. Moscow has launched a criminal investigation into the crash.
Aliyev said on December 29 that Azerbaijan was “in favor of a group of international experts” investigating the matter and had “categorically refused” Russia’s suggestion that the Interstate Aviation Committee, which oversees civil aviation in the Commonwealth of Independent States, investigate the crash.
“It is no secret that this organization consists mostly of Russian officials and is headed by Russian citizens,” Aliyev said. “The factors of objectivity could not be fully ensured here.”
Aliyev said the “final version (of events) will be known after the black boxes are opened.”
Azerbaijan sent the airliner’s black boxes for analysis to Brazil, where experts began analyzing the data January 3, according to Politico Europe.
Brazil’s air force said in a statement that nine foreign investigators gathered with its own experts in the capital Brasilia to work on the data. Kazakhstan has three investigators in that group, while six others come from Azerbaijan and Russia.
Embraer, the aircraft’s manufacturer, told The Associated Press in a statement that the company is “ready to assist all relevant authorities.”
Why have some experts blamed Russian air defenses?
Some aviation experts have said the holes seen in the plane’s tail section after the crash indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said the analysis of the fragments of the crashed plane indicates a 90 to 99% probability that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.”
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
FlightRadar24 said in an online post that the aircraft had faced “strong GPS jamming” that interfered with flight-tracking data allowing it to monitor the plane’s flight path. Russia has extensively used sophisticated jamming equipment to fend off drone attacks.
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that the images of the crashed plane’s tail show damage compatible with shrapnel from the Russian Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
It is unclear why the pilots decided to fly across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land in Russia after the plane was hit, he said, adding that they probably faced restrictions on landing at a closer venue and may have thought that the damage was not critical.
In Azerbaijan, the online newspaper Caliber also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Pantsyr-S and also had its systems affected by jamming equipment as it was approaching Grozny.
How did Russia’s and Azerbaijan’s leaders respond?
Aliyev said Azerbaijan made three demands to Russia in connection with the crash.
“First, the Russian side must apologize to Azerbaijan. Second, it must admit its guilt. Third, punish the guilty, bring them to criminal responsibility and pay compensation to the Azerbaijani state, the injured passengers and crew members,” he said.
Aliyev noted that the first demand was “already fulfilled” when Putin apologized to him.
An official Kremlin statement issued December 28 said that air defense systems were firing near Grozny airport as the airliner “repeatedly” attempted to land there but did not explicitly say if one of them brought the plane down.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media on December 29 that Putin had spoken to Aliyev over the phone again but did not provide details of the conversation.
According to a readout of the call provided by Aliyev’s press office, the Azerbaijani leader told Putin that the plane experienced “external physical and technical interference,” although he also stopped short of explicitly blaming Russian air defenses. Aliyev noted that the plane had multiple holes in its fuselage and that the occupants had sustained injuries “due to foreign particles penetrating the cabin midflight.”
Azerbaijan observed a nationwide day of mourning on December 26. National flags were at half-staff, traffic across the country stopped at noon, and sirens sounded from ships and trains.