Director’s Letter

V13N1

Welcome to the 49th edition of per Concordiam. This edition takes another look at China’s economic and political influence in Europe and around the world. Two years ago, this journal published a well-received edition examining China’s European strategy. This issue updates readers on China’s evolving goals, explores how recent global developments have affected its strategies and what can be expected from Beijing.

U.S. European Command Deputy Director of Plans and Operations, Brig. Gen. James Cleet, leads off with a look at how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) views strategic competition and how, in partnership with Russia and other authoritarian governments, it hopes to overturn the liberal, rules-based world order and replace it with one more favorable to its global ambitions. We also see how the Large Scale Global Exercise 2024, a cumulation of 30 different exercises conducted worldwide, aimed to defend that rules-based order.

In more detailed analyses, Theresa Fallon lays out how the CCP uses its United Front system to influence European policy and thought leaders. Dr. Valbona Zeneli digs deeply into Europe-China relations and considers how Europe can “de-risk” its economic ties with China without jeopardizing the benefits of trade. Narantsatsral Enkhbat looks at China’s emerging strategic partnership with Russia and how China aims to use that relationship to project power and advance its interests in the Indo-Pacific region. Kerry Gershaneck looks at how the CCP employs political warfare to pursue its geopolitical and hegemonic ambitions.

Also, Sardar Ali Haidar examines how a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait would affect the security and economy of the entire world, and why Europe should use all levers available to prevent armed conflict from breaking out in the region. Mark Stiefbold and Dr. Rod Stiefbold examine how China is uniquely positioned to affect stability in Egypt through trade, which indirectly impacts European security. William Hagestad takes a deep dive into DIME (diplomacy, information, military and economics) analysis of Chinese economic and political policy goals in Europe and internationally, and into potential Western policy responses. Finally, an article previously published in Indo-Pacific Defense Forum magazine looks at how the CCP has used clandestine “overseas police stations” to track and harass Chinese dissidents living abroad.

As Brig. Gen. Cleet points out in the opening article, “Once-optimistic outlooks on Europe’s business relations with China have become guarded, and for good reason.” Close economic ties do not guarantee conflict-free geopolitical relations, as many had hoped. Recent geopolitical events, especially Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, have opened eyes to the dangers of strategic impassivity regarding potential geopolitical rivals. China’s increasingly aggressive tone toward Taiwan and actions on its periphery, along with China and Russia’s proclaimed “friendship without limits,” should leave no doubts among Western allies and partners of what’s at stake for the liberal, rules-based international order. Lost optimism aside, a clear vision of China’s motives and ambitions will help promote a peaceful and prosperous world.

This issue provides key insights on China’s evolving role in Europe and the world, and how the Western allies and international partners can prepare and respond to China’s actions.

Sincerely,

Barre R. Seguin
Director

Barre R. Seguin retired from the U.S. Air Force as a major general in October 2020 after more than 31 years of active service. His last assignment was as the Deputy Chief of Staff, Strategic Employment, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, Belgium. He entered active duty in 1989 as a distinguished graduate of the Reserve Officer Training Corps after graduating from the State University of New York at Potsdam. His flying assignments included serving as a flight examiner, instructor pilot, wing chief of safety and operations officer, with commands at the squadron, group, wing, and Air and Space Expeditionary Task Force levels. His command and staff positions included Commander, 9th Air and Space Expeditionary Task Force-Afghanistan and the NATO Air Command-Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan; Director, Strategy, Engagement, and Programs, U.S. Africa Command, Stuttgart, Germany; Commander, 31st Fighter Wing, Aviano Air Base, Italy; and Inspector General, Headquarters Air Combat Command.

per Concordiam, a U.S. European Command publication in coordination with the George C. Marshall European Center for European Studies